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NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK.(JUN 22 2015)

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Category: Weather Reports
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NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA, FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, NORTHERN OHIO, NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

**SUMMARY**
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

***GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION***
A LARGE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING MCC CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ATTM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MI. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE MI/SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI AREA INVOF A SHARPENING WARM FRONT AND EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA AND SWD INTO ADJACENT NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MESOSCALE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCC. ALONG WITH RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE, A REMNANT OUTFLOW TRAILS WWD INTO IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS MN/NWRN IA/ERN NEB ATTM. STRONG CAPPING IS EVIDENT ACROSS ERN NEB BASED ON MORNING RAOBS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK WEST OF THE MO RIVER BUT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITH TIME ACROSS IOWA LIKELY INVOF THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION INITIALLY. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD OR EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME MOVING INTO NRN IL ALONG WITH RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY THOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO AN MCS SEEMS LIKELY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY SUGGEST A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY WIND/HAIL RISK. WITH STORMS CONTINUING EWD THIS EVENING THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NRN OH AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF NRN/WRN PA AND WRN NY OVERNIGHT.

*THE SOUTHEAST*
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM.

 

 

 

  

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